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A looming political storm over enlisting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israeli army is posing a risk to Israel's government and fracturing the country.

The public mood on the question has shifted dramatically in Israel after two years of conflict, and this is now arguably the most volatile political risk facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Judicial Conflict

Politicians are reviewing a proposal to terminate the special status awarded to Haredi students enrolled in yeshiva learning, created when the State of Israel was declared in 1948.

This arrangement was declared unconstitutional by Israel's High Court of Justice two decades ago. Temporary arrangements to extend it were finally concluded by the court last year, forcing the administration to begin drafting the Haredi sector.

Some 24,000 draft notices were delivered last year, but merely about 1,200 ultra-Orthodox - or Haredi - draftees reported for duty, according to army data shared with lawmakers.

Tensions Erupt Into Public View

Tensions are erupting onto the city centers, with lawmakers now deliberating a new draft bill to force Haredi males into national service in the same way as other Jewish citizens.

Two representatives were harassed this month by radical elements, who are incensed with the legislative debate of the proposed law.

And last week, a special Border Police unit had to extract Military Police officers who were targeted by a big group of Haredi men as they sought to apprehend a alleged conscription dodger.

These enforcement actions have sparked the creation of a new messaging system named "Dark Alert" to spread word quickly through Haredi neighborhoods and summon activists to block enforcement from happening.

"We're a Jewish country," remarked Shmuel Orbach. "One cannot oppose Judaism in a nation founded on Jewish identity. It doesn't work."

A Realm Set Aside

But the transformations sweeping across Israel have not reached the confines of the religious seminary in Bnei Brak, an ultra-Orthodox city on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

In the learning space, teenage boys study together to debate the Torah, their brightly coloured school notebooks standing out against the lines of white shirts and head coverings.

"Visit in the early hours, and you will see half the guys are pursuing religious study," the dean of the yeshiva, Rabbi Tzemach Mazuz, said. "Via dedicated learning, we shield the troops in the field. This is our army."

The community holds that constant study and spiritual pursuit guard Israel's military, and are as essential to its military success as its tanks and air force. This conviction was acknowledged by the nation's leaders in the previous eras, Rabbi Mazuz said, but he acknowledged that Israel was changing.

Increasing Societal Anger

The ultra-Orthodox population has significantly increased its share of Israel's population over the past seven decades, and now represents around one in seven. A policy that originated as an deferment for a small number of Torah scholars evolved into, by the onset of the 2023 war, a cohort of approximately 60,000 men exempt from the conscription.

Opinion polls indicate backing for drafting the Haredim is increasing. A survey in July found that 85% of non-Haredi Jews - encompassing a significant majority in the Prime Minister's political base - supported sanctions for those who refused a enlistment summons, with a clear majority in approving cutting state subsidies, passports, or the electoral participation.

"It seems to me there are citizens who reside in this country without contributing," one serviceman in Tel Aviv said.

"It is my belief, however religious you are, [it] should be an excuse not to fulfill your duty to your country," stated a Tel Aviv resident. "Being a native, I find it somewhat unreasonable that you want to avoid service just to learn in a yeshiva all day."

Voices from Within a Religious City

Support for extending the draft is also expressed by religious Jews not part of the Haredi community, like one local resident, who lives near the yeshiva and points to non-Haredi religious Jews who do serve in the military while also studying Torah.

"It makes me angry that the Haredim don't enlist," she said. "It's unfair. I am also committed to the Torah, but there's a proverb in Jewish tradition - 'Safra and Saifa' – it represents the scripture and the weapons together. This is the correct approach, until the messianic era."

She runs a local tribute in her city to soldiers from the area, both observant and non-observant, who were lost in conflict. Rows of photographs {